Although Halloween isnât for another week, Pandora shareholders are experiencing quite a scare after rumors of last monthâs Apple-branded Internet radio service resurfaced Yesterday.
Apple could close important licensing agreements with major music labels by mid November, and launch its own streaming music service by early 2013, according to a Bloomberg report that cites unnamed sources familiar with the matter. Appleâs alleged music service should mimic Pandoraâs smart radio model rather than the much more costly OnDemand model used by Spotify. It will also be advertising-supported, but there is still an ongoing negotiation between Apple and the labels on how to split ad revenue, according to Bloombergâs sources.
If the Apple radio rumors are true, Pandora has every right to be scared â" terrified, even.
The rumors alone sent Pandoraâs stock crashing 21 percent, closings the day with a 11.7 percent decline. This is the second time weâve seen Pandora take a nose dive over Apple rumors. Iâd imagine the stock will perform even worse heading into the first quarter of 2013 when Appleâs Internet Radio service will allegedly launch. Other digital radio companies are also fearful of Appleâs entrance into the streaming music space. Yesterday also saw Sirius XMâs stock decline as the Apple rumors took hold.
Apple is seeing a slow down in overall digital music sales, and likely wants to keep its products competitive with a growing number of rival devices that offer their own streaming music service. And since Apple already has an advertising infrastructure in place via its iAds platform, the company has a perfect opportunity to jump into Internet Radio.
Apple could decide the fate of Internet radio rivals
My guess is that regardless of any dispute the music labels have with Appleâs ad-revenue split, the deal will likely move forward. Apple has shown that it can be a powerful player that can push the music industry around to get its way. And in this situation, the last thing music labels want is for Apple to align itself with Pandora and others that are currently trying to get a new piece of legislation â" the Internet Radio Fairness Act of 2012 â" passed that would lower the licensing fee rates from Internet radio companies.
Pandora is already struggling to stay profitable, despite reporting record high revenue over the last few quarters. Pandora is rapidly building its own advertising business, but as the companyâs fiscal Q2 2013 earnings report shows, itâs not growing fast enough to compensate for the extremely high licensing fees.
Earlier this month Pandora founder Tim Westergen even spoke out against the current music licensing legislationâs unfair bias toward digital music companies. One very significant point he raised was that most companies simply cannot justify running an Internet radio business because of the licensing costs â" specifically citing both AOL and Yahoo abandoning their streaming music services. Itâs easier for a giant corporation to eliminate a portion of its business that isnât performing, such as streaming music services. Companies built entirely around streaming music will either succeed with meager results or die off.
The alleged Apple Internet radio revenue would more than compensate for any money lost from the closure of Pandora. And something tells me that if Pandora does die off, neither the RIAA or the major music companies will shed a tear.
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