Tuesday, August 28, 2012

HOW TO PLAY IT-What Apple's victory means for mobile investors - Reuters

Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:59pm EDT

Aug 28 (Reuters) - The world's most valuable company is now a little richer.

A California jury awarded Apple Inc $1.05 billion in damages Friday in a decision that found that competitor Samsung Electronics Co Ltd had infringed six smartphone patents.

The ruling will likely usher in another wave of intellectual property lawsuits in Silicon Valley as Apple and other smartphone makers look for any edge in the hugely profitable and growing mobile computing business, analysts noted. Apple asked a federal judge Monday to block the sale of some of Samsung's popular Galaxy phones that include the patented technology or designs in question.

For investors, the jury's decision likely means that the mobile industry will continue to be dominated by Apple. But that does not mean that other, less-obvious options do not exist.

Microsoft Corp, Google Inc and parts manufacturers could all end up benefiting, at least tangentially, from Apple's victory, analysts said.

Here are suggestions on how to play a mobile industry in transition:

OUTSIDE OF APPLE

The recent case was not Apple's victory alone. The ruling could provide a boost to Microsoft, which has a valuable library of patents and an operating system that steers well clear of Apple's legal claims, analysts said.

Microsoft and Nokia are expected to announce a new Lumia phone that will run Windows 8 and will be available on Verizon Communications Inc's network, according to a note from Trefis, a Boston-based stock research firm. The Windows phones could continue to take market share from Blackberry maker Research in Motion Ltd, Trefis noted.

Microsoft also could receive a boost from parts suppliers that decide that continuing to work with Samsung could put it at a legal risk, said Cody Acre, director of research at Williams Financial Group.

"To some degree the win likely strengthens the possible success of Microsoft's Windows operating system, as a larger number of original equipment manufactures may seek the relative patent safety of Microsoft," he said in a research note Monday.

Acre noted that Apple has few viable competitors in the smartphone hardware business, as companies like LG Electronics Inc, Lenovo Group Ltd and Sony Corp "could all come under significantly increased legal, design and expense pressure, further weighing on the ability of any of them to mount a real competitive advantage," he said.

As a result, he expects that "Samsung will continue to be successful and remain the only viable competitor to Apple," which could make the company attractive to value investors.

Samsung Electronics stock fell 7.5 percent in Seoul on Monday, wiping out about $12 billion in market capitalization. It now trades at a price to earnings ratio of 10.5, and offers a dividend yield of 0.5 percent.

Samsung in the recent ruling was found to have infringed several Apple iPhone patents that ranged from tapping to zoom in on text to the phone's icon interface.

Other investors are expecting Apple's legal victory eventually to help its competitor, Google.

"There will be more patent warfare going on among the handset makers and the real winners are going to be those who continue to innovate," said Dan Morris, portfolio manager of the $4.5 million Manor Growth Fund.

Morris owns both Apple and Google. Several analysts and legal experts have said that Google could be Apple's next litigation target as it takes on its popular Android operating system.

Yet Morris said that the case will spur Google to make significant changes to its operating system in order to avoid further legal questions. Its roughly $670 share price reflects more of its search business dominance than its Android business, he said, giving the company significant room to grow.

Google trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 and is up approximately 27 percent for the year.

APPLE ITSELF

Apple's victory gives investors yet another reason to buy the company, whose $633.4 billion market cap makes it the most valuable company of all time.

It is likely that Apple will win an injunction against Samsung that will prevent the company from selling smartphones that infringe the patent, noted Peter Misek, an analyst at Jefferies.

Any gains in mobile will bolster a slate of new products that will be released in the company's 2013 fiscal year, said Michael Walkley, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity. The next version of the iPhone and long-expected iTV television product will make the company well-positioned for growth, he noted.

For all its profits and stock gains this year, Apple remains reasonably priced by fundamental measures. It trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5, roughly in line with the broad Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, and offers a dividend yield of 1.6 percent. The company's shares are up about 65 percent since the start of the year.

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